A new survey of American security experts has found they believe China’s military power is still insufficient to successfully invade Taiwan.
Out of the 52 US experts who participated in the poll, only 27 percent believe that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could pull off an amphibious invasion.
One of the major factors in this decision was the belief that American forces would immediately intervene if Beijing launched an attack on the small island nation.
They said an amphibious invasion requires a very large commitment of military forces, and the operations involved would be extremely complicated.
“An overwhelming 96% of US experts were completely or moderately confident that if China invades Taiwan in the next five years, the US military would intervene to defend Taiwan,” the report noted.
The US experts who participated in the survey have extensive experience in the government, academia, and think tanks.
Taiwan’s View
In addition to asking US security experts, the survey was also sent to 35 defense experts from Taiwan, who were notably more conservative in their assessment of China’s military capabilities.
Compared to the Americans, Taiwanese respondents view Beijing as less militarily capable of executing an invasion.
None were confident in China’s current military strength, as only 17 percent “somewhat agree” that a Chinese amphibious invasion is possible.
However, in terms of intervention, Taiwanese experts appeared less confident that the US and its allies would help Taipei in the event of a conflict.
“While 29 percent of US experts were completely confident or moderately confident that partners and allies would join US-led multinational military efforts to defend Taiwan against a quarantine, only 15 percent of Taiwan experts thought the same,” the report added. “In fact, 40 percent of Taiwan experts were not at all confident.”
Alleged Invasion by 2027
Concerns about China invading Taiwan to reunify have grown amid improving ties between Taipei and the US – its most important ally.
The PLA simulated Taiwan strikes in April 2023 in response to a high-level meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Beijing has continued its illegal incursions into Taiwan’s exclusive zone, including an incident earlier this week where six Chinese balloons were detected around the island nation.
China’s increasing military activities have led US intelligence experts to believe that the Asian military superpower would invade Taiwan by 2027.
