Togo Eyes Joining Alliance of Junta-Led Sahel States

Togo appears to be openly courting a new confederation made up of junta-led Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger for whom access to the small nation’s port would be a game-changer.

Foreign Minister Robert Dussey has stepped up overtures to the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), originally set up as a defense pact in 2023 but which now seeks closer integration.

In January, he remarked that membership was “not impossible” but last week went a step further in comments posted on social media.

“Togo is considering joining the AES, a strategic decision that could strengthen regional cooperation and offer access to the sea to member countries,” he said.

Access to a port is crucial for the trio of landlocked, jihadist-hit west African countries, whose leaders seized power promising greater sovereignty.

Tensions with Ivory Coast and Benin, accused of cozying up too much to Western powers, have already forced Mali, Niger and Burkina to start using Togo’s port in the capital Lome and the port of Tema in Ghana instead.

But Togo’s membership of the alliance could enhance access and open up new trade opportunities, analysts say.

“There’s the hope of economic solidarity: access to Nigerien oil, renewed trade routes,” Togolese political analyst Madi Djabakate said.

“Togo could also benefit from more agile military cooperation, intelligence sharing with its neighbours,” he told AFP.

Jihadists are increasingly active in northern Togo on the border with Burkina where groups that have plagued the central Sahel region for a decade wage deadly attacks.

The junta leaders of the AES have struggled to get the upper hand against the jihadists since seizing power in coups between 2020 and 2023 and have announced they will soon form a joint force of 5,000 troops.

Togo approves of the juntas’ declared strategy of taking back sovereignty.

All three west African countries have turned away from former colonial power France and the West generally and forged closer ties with Russia and other new partners.

“By engaging with the AES, Togo is part of a pan-African narrative where nations, long divided, are learning to stand together,” Djabakate said.

Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe, at the helm since 2005, “can stay in power forever as long as he proclaims his pan-Africanism,” a policy increasingly finding favor among popular opinion, he added.

The military-led Sahelian countries have not ceded to pressure to call quick elections, instead extending the political transition period to span several years.

Turning Back on ECOWAS ?

Togo’s warming attitude towards the Sahelian confederation is also “a good way to create a diversion,” Djabakate, the political scientist, said.

A new constitution, which was adopted a year ago, is under fire from the opposition and civil society, who claim it will enable Gnassingbe to remain in power indefinitely.

“We are faced with a logic of an ongoing hold on power, refusal of a transition, that Togo shares with the three countries of the AES,” Francis Akindes, sociologist and professor at Ivory Coast’s Bouake University said.

One of Togo’s leading opposition figures Nathaniel Olympio warned of the consequences of Togo’s leaders turning their back on the regional West African bloc, ECOWAS.

Membership of the AES “would protect its regime from the constraints of ECOWAS on respect for the rule of law and public freedoms,” he said.

Mali, Niger and Burkina quit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) at the beginning of the year, accusing the bloc of being subservient to France and failing in the fight against jihadism.

“Togo has always maintained a warm and cordial relationship with these different military regimes,” Seidik Abba, head of the International Center for Studies and Reflections on the Sahel, said.

“It has even been a mediator between ECOWAS and these military powers,” he added.

Djabakate said Togo could be a member of both ECOWAS and the Sahel confederation at the same time.

“Alliances aren’t marriages, but rather partnerships,” he said.

Togo is not turning away from ECOWAS, especially since its port at Lome is a “vital artery” for the entire region, he said.

Togo’s plan is to “remain anchored in an historic institution while exploring new paths,” Djabakate added.

However, the prospects for ECOWAS could be bleaker.

Togo joining the AES would “speed up its disintegration,” Abba said.

“In any case, it will worsen its already precarious situation.”