The fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad shattered the key link in Iran’s “axis of resistance”, but Tehran will look for ways to adapt to the new reality, analysts say.
After nearly 14 years of war in Syria, a lightning offensive launched by an Islamist-led rebel alliance brought Assad down.
The offensive began on November 27, just as a ceasefire took effect in the war between Iran’s powerful proxy Hezbollah and Israel.
Hezbollah had long used Syria as its key conduit for weapons and supplies from Iran.
With Assad gone, it remains to be seen how Hezbollah will adapt, particularly after the staggering losses it suffered in its own recent war.
‘Frontline of Resistance’
In the past, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in his country’s affairs, has said that “Syria is on the frontline of the resistance against Israel.”
The axis of resistance, to use Tehran’s term, comprises Iran itself and a smattering of proxy forces united by their opposition to Israel, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian militant group Hamas, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, as well as smaller groups in Iraq.
Until Sunday, Assad’s government was a key component of the axis, and he would likely not have survived for as long as he did had it not been for Hezbollah and Iran’s military backing.
But the fall of Assad on Sunday was a major blow to the loose alliance, and the latest in a string of setbacks for Iran in its fight against Israel.
In recent months, Israel has killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, and decimated both groups’ mid-level leadership.
Iran also blames Israel for the killing of former Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in an attack in Tehran in July.
Meanwhile, the Islamic republic has lost hundreds of its Revolutionary Guards in Syria over more than a decade of the country’s civil war, including in Israeli air strikes.
‘Destabilize’
Within Iran, some believe the Syrian rebels’ goal was to sever the link between Tehran and its allies.
With its influence now threatened in Syria, Iran “will no longer be able to support Hezbollah as it did before,” Mehdi Zakerian, an expert on international relations in Tehran, told AFP.
In Tehran’s official narrative, the revolt against Assad’s rule was an American-Israeli plot to “destabilise” the Middle East and redraw its political map.
Syria’s civil war was sparked by a crackdown on democracy protests inspired by the Arab Spring.
Iran sent to Syria what it presented as “military advisers” to support Assad’s army, at his request.
Shiite Muslim militias close to Iran also deployed, allowing Tehran to gain influence in Syria, which borders not only Lebanon but also Israel.
After the fall of Damascus on Sunday, the Iranian embassy was ransacked, an act that would have been previously unimaginable.
‘He did not pay attention’
And while Iran was a key backer of Assad, some official critiques of the former leader were emerging after his downfall.
“Bashar was an opportunity for Iran, but he did not pay enough attention to the recommendations of the Islamic Republic,” Iranian news agency Fars said.
Following the rebels’ declaration of victory, Iran’s foreign ministry said its policy towards any new Syrian government would depend on “developments in Syria and the region, as well as the behaviour of the actors.”
But the statement also said Iran expected to continue “friendly” relations with the country.
On Saturday, as rebels were swiftly advancing towards Damascus, Tehran had called on all sides in the conflict to engage in negotiations.
That statement by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was significant, not least because of its timing, and appeared to mark a change in tone.
Iran had long branded any form of opposition in Syria as “terrorism.”
On Sunday, with that opposition now seemingly in charge, Araghchi said: “Syria played an important role in supporting the resistance, but it is not the case that the resistance will stop without Syria.”
