As became clear on October 26, when Israel’s fighter planes all returned home safely after destroying 20 Iranian military sites in three successive bombing waves, Iran has neither the aircraft nor the surface-to-air missiles capable of challenging the Israeli Air Force.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin are the reason why.
Iran employs the Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile defense system but not the incomparably superior S-400, which many consider the world’s best.
Upon the October 2020 expiration of a UN arms embargo on Iran, Russia was set to sell Iran the S-400, whose many capabilities include intercepting the stealth F-35 fighter jet, the top gun in Israel’s fleet.
“We have said since the very first day that there will be no problem for selling weapons to Iran from October 19, 2020,” Russia’s ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan announced early in October 2020.
“As you know we have provided Iran with S-300. Russia does not have any problem delivering S-400 to Iran and it did not have any problem before either.”
Iran and the S-400
Days later, Netanyahu and Putin — who have a long and, until recently, close friendship — discussed the S-400 sale as well as Russia’s involvement in Syria. The S-400 sale didn’t materialize, neither in 2020 nor to date, despite Iran’s pleadings over the subsequent years and Russia’s dependence on Iran for drones for its war with Ukraine.
Had Iran persuaded Russia to sell it the S-400, the Israel Air Force could have been hard-pressed to achieve mastery over Iran’s skies.
“A fly can’t buzz above Syria without Russian consent nowadays,” an Israeli defense official told the International Crisis Group after Russia installed and manned the S-400 in Syria, a long-standing Russian ally that Russia defends.
The Israel Air Force also did not need to concern itself with a difficult dogfight over Iran because Iran has an aging, mostly Soviet-era air force. Had Russia agreed to deliver to Iran its modern Su-35 fighter jets, which it has long promised, Israel’s air force would have faced additional complexities in attacking Iran.
Strategic Alignments
The Israeli-Russian understandings serve both countries. Israel doesn’t need added challenges in thwarting Iran’s air defenses, and Russia doesn’t want to give Israel an added incentive to discover vulnerabilities in either the S-400 or Su-35, particularly since Israel would pass on its findings to the US military.
To avoid a clash between the Russian and Israeli militaries, Russia gives Israel license to attack Iran-related operations in Syria, free from worry that it will use its S-400 to bring down Israeli aircraft.
The history of the region may also loom large in Russia’s thinking. Although Russia and Iran are today allied, over much of their history they have been enemies, having fought numerous wars and been Cold War adversaries.
Should Iran’s unpopular Mullahs lose their grip on power, as seems possible under Donald Trump’s presidency, Iran could once again become allied with the West and antagonistic toward Russia.
Legacy of Russia-Israel Relations
In contrast to the historic animosity between Russia and Iran, Russia has a 1,000-year-long affinity for the Holy Lands.
Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church became major landowners in Jerusalem, and Russia’s claim to sovereignty over the Holy Lands’ Orthodox Christians led to the Crimean War of 1853.
During Israel’s War of Independence in 1948, while the US enforced an arms embargo against Israel, the Soviet Union was alone in arming Israel. The Soviet Union subsequently became the first country to officially recognize the nascent State of Israel.
Putin’s Personal Ties to Israel
Personal history may also explain Putin’s tilt toward Israel. As a young child, a Jewish couple were his caregivers, and as a teenager, he admired his Jewish high-school German teacher, for whom he later purchased an apartment in downtown Tel Aviv.
Putin has had good relations with Russia’s Jewish communities, noting that “of all the Jews exterminated by the Nazis, the majority were citizens of the Soviet Union, and this is our common pain.” He has encouraged the restoration of Russia’s synagogues. Russia’s chief rabbi is a close confidant.
Putin’s nationalism leads him to show concern for Russian Jews who emigrated to Israel. Referring to the threats from Israel’s enemies that endanger Russian Israelis, Putin in 2012 said he “would not let a million Russians live under threat.”
Strained Friendship
Although Iran has helped arm Russia in its war with Ukraine, Putin has not reciprocated by arming Iran in its hostilities against Israel. After Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ leader in Tehran, Putin asked Iran not to retaliate against Israel’s civilian population.
Of late, pressure on Israel from Joe Biden’s administration to oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pressure on Russia from China and Iran to oppose Israel’s invasion of Gaza have strained the Netanyahu-Putin friendship.
Regardless, Netanyahu’s diplomacy of 2020 has held. Russia continues to deny Iran the defenses that Iran believes it needs to counter Israeli attacks.
Lawrence Solomon is a Canadian author and columnist on financial and geopolitical issues.
He was an advisor to President Jimmy Carter’s Task Force on the Global Environment (the Global 2000 Report) in the late 1970s and at the forefront of movements to privatize and deregulate energy systems, reform foreign aid, and convert free roads to toll roads.
The Deniers, his 2008 book exposing the global warming fraud, became the number one environmental bestseller in both Canada and the US and was deemed one of the “10 Books That Drive The Debate” by the US National Chamber of Commerce.
Now a columnist with Financial Post and Epoch Times and a contributor to the Jewish News Syndicate, he has been a columnist for the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star Syndicate, a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, a founding oped editor at the National Post and the editor and publisher of the award-winning The Next City magazine.
He is the author or co-author of seven books, including Energy Shock (Doubleday), In the Name of Progress (Doubleday), Breaking Up Ontario Hydro’s Monopoly (Energy Probe), Power at What Cost (Doubleday), and Toronto Sprawls (University of Toronto Press).
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Defense Post.
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