Contrary to expectations, China may initiate an economic and cyber war against Taiwan to compel the island nation to surrender its sovereignty without resorting to direct military action.
The Washington, DC-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) stated in a recent report that economic and cyber coercion appear to be the most logical methods for Beijing to pursue reunification while avoiding global escalation.
“It’s aimed at weakening Taiwan, forcing its political submission while avoiding global escalation — at present, it seems like a scenario that’s sort of already underway,” FDD Senior Director for China Craig Singleton told Foreign Policy.
Earlier this year, the FDD conducted a two-day exercise simulating potential non-military moves by China, including disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks on key infrastructure, and freezing bank transfers.
These tactics could erode public trust in the Taiwanese government, resulting in social unrest, according to the FDD.
“China could destabilize Taiwan’s financial system to incite social unrest as a precursor to invasion,” the report stated.
A Challenge for Taiwan, US
In March, a US military commander claimed that China is on track for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
Speculation was further fueled by Beijing’s statement that its drills around the island nation were meant to test its ability to seize power.
While Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that he will not rule out the use of force to retake Taiwan, he also emphasized his desire for a “peaceful reunification.”
With non-military tactics likely on the table, the FDD recommends precautionary measures, including relocating businesses away from China, diversifying energy imports, and strengthening financial resilience.
The think tank also urged the US to develop a playbook of options on how best to respond.
Washington has reportedly yet to formulate a plan to counter these strategies, giving China the flexibility to continue undermining Taiwan without triggering an outright US response.