Ukraine’s ability to launch long-range attacks on Russia is so effective that even a few successful strikes could alter the course of the war, an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has claimed.
In its recent assessment of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the American think tank noted that successful long-range strikes deep inside Russia would compel invading forces to reposition significant assets outside the range of Western-supplied weapons.
This could also mean that strategic enemy assets would be away from the frontline, further complicating Russian military logistics.
The ISW cited a series of Ukrainian strikes using US-made HIMARS rockets in 2022, which “prompted Russian forces to disperse ammunition storage facilities and degraded the efficiency of Russian logistics.”
A White House national security advisor previously downplayed the effectiveness of some long-range weapons, arguing they have had less impact because Russia likely moved its most immediate threats beyond their range.
Attempting to Influence Western Debate
Discussions are ongoing regarding whether to grant Kyiv greater freedom to use Western-provided weapons.
While some countries have expressed their support, the US remains hesitant due to concerns of war escalation.
The ISW reported that Russian authorities are now trying to engage in a “significant rhetorical effort” to sway these debates unfavorably for Ukraine.
“This Russian effort suggests a deep concern with the operational pressures that such strikes into Russia would generate on Russian offensive operations in Ukraine,” the report noted.
Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any long-strike strike into Russian territory using Western weapons would be viewed as direct involvement in the conflict.
It would also force Moscow to make “appropriate decisions” about the countries that supplied the weapons, he said.
Associated Risks
US intelligence agencies recently pointed out that granting Ukraine’s request presents a high-stakes decision with uncertain outcomes.
Such an action could reportedly provoke Moscow to retaliate with greater force against the US and its allies.
They said these reasons may be affecting President Joe Biden’s reluctance to give the green light to Ukraine.