China is anticipated to employ various deception tactics in a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to a report by the Association of the US Army (AUSA).
In an article titled Defeating Deception: Outthinking Chinese Deception in a Taiwan Invasion, Maj. Thomas Haydock asserts that Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will “almost certainly” use deception at both strategic and operational levels.
Though he did not specify, he said the tactics could aim to delay American support or restrict Taiwan’s access to nearby US bases in Japan.
From an operational standpoint, the PLA may utilize deception to find alternative means to land its equipment on beaches, bypassing the island nation’s heavily guarded seaports.
“China may conduct feints, demonstrations, and similar activities to draw Taiwanese attention to amphibious landing sites that are either false or not the main effort,” Haydock wrote.
“But if we fail to closely monitor an effort for fear it is a deception, China could exploit the opportunity and turn a feint into a real attack.”
‘A Mental Game’
Haydock argues that there is no distinct “Chinese way of war” and that everything could boil down to a tough mental game between China and Taiwan’s allies.
He advised closely monitoring “macro-level” and “near-term” indicators, such as building resiliency, freezing foreign financial assets, and stockpiling emergency supplies.
So far, the Taiwanese military has been preparing for a scenario in which Beijing suddenly escalates one of its regular military drills into an actual attack.
It has also conducted “unscripted drills” to prepare for surprise PLA tactics.
“We have the advantage. We just need to realize it by understanding, predicting and identifying deception — outthinking Chinese deception to find the signal in the noise,” Haydock noted.
“Once we have that advantage, we can defeat their deception by reversing roles so that if China invades Taiwan, it will be China that experiences both situational and fundamental surprise.”
Historical Overview
China has a proven history of using deceptive tactics in warfare.
During its intervention in the Korean War in the 1950s, approximately 300,000 PLA troops entered North Korea without drawing much attention.
They reportedly moved long distances at night and used camouflage during the day to avoid being spotted by enemy reconnaissance.
Reports of Chinese movements were released based on witnesses, but military technology at that time could not confirm them due to the strategic deception tactics employed.