China’s increasing military activities are making it harder for Taiwan to quickly discern a shift from large-scale exercises to war, the island nation’s defense minister has warned.
Wellington Koo, a strong advocate for building a multi-level deterrence capability, acknowledged on Wednesday that the country may not have enough time to respond to a “potential sudden contingency.”
He noted that the scale of Beijing’s military activities around Taiwan is getting larger, making it difficult to detect signs of an impending attack.
To address this, Koo said that Taipei needs to quickly “differentiate between peacetime and wartime” and develop the ability to respond to sudden attacks.
The Taiwanese military has already simulated a scenario in which China suddenly escalates one of its regular military drills into a full-scale invasion.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the Ministry of National Defense reported a record 2,076 “illegal” incursions by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Observe PLA Behavior
The largest PLA incursion occurred on July 9 when 66 Chinese military aircraft were detected inside Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Earlier this month, Beijing also conducted one of its largest amphibious landing drills on a coast opposite Taiwan, a move widely seen as a rehearsal for an invasion.
The Asian military superpower previously stated that its drills around Taiwan were meant to test its ability to seize power over the self-ruled island.
Koo suggested that the Taiwanese military needs to enhance its monitoring of PLA behavior to detect potential attacks and develop scenarios for its own exercises.
In July, the defense ministry pledged to conduct “unscripted” drills to develop capabilities for a swift response in real combat situations.
