A startling German intelligence report claims that Russia may launch an attack on a NATO member state by 2026.
The classified report seen by Business Insider provided an analysis of Moscow’s increasing military activities, reportedly indicating preparation for a major conflict beyond the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Reorganization of the Russian Army, continual troop movements, and missile deployments in the west of the country are among the factors that led to the report’s conclusions.
The ongoing expansion of Russian arms production could also allow the nation to double its military strength over the next five years, especially in conventional weapons.
“It can no longer be ruled out,” the report said, referring to a potential Russian attack on NATO, for example, in the Baltic states or Finland.
In June 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow had sent nuclear arms to its ally Belarus, fueling concerns about an escalation of conflict outside Ukraine.
Contradictory Reports
Concerns about Russia attacking a NATO member grew earlier this year when a leaked German military document detailed a potential situation where Moscow wins in Ukraine and then goes to war with a member of the alliance.
Although NATO admitted that Russia’s growing military capabilities are indeed alarming, it said it does not necessarily believe they will lead to a war in the future.
US intelligence services also dismissed speculations of a Russian attack on NATO in the “mid-term perspective,” saying it would take Moscow five to eight years to rebuild its military strength following its significant losses in Ukraine.
Despite downplaying the rumors, NATO continues to invest in bolstering its defense capabilities, including ordering over 200,000 155-millimeter artillery shells for $1.2 billion.
